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Monte Carlo Analyzer · ErgodicLabs
● PASS
EURUSD · H1 · 10-year backtest · 10,000 simulations
A+
grade
Pass rate94.7%
Worst DD (95th)18.2%
Edge persistenceStrong
Profit consistency91.3%
VerdictReal edge
10K
Simulations
94.7%
Pass rate
18.2%
Max DD
How it works
Three steps to the truth
No account. No credit card. No noise. Upload your backtest and get a clear verdict in under 30 seconds.
01
Export your backtest
Run your strategy in MT4 or MT5 strategy tester. Export results as XML — it takes about 10 seconds from the tester interface.
02
Upload to ErgodicLabs
Drag and drop your file at ergodiclabs.co/monte-carlo. The engine runs 10,000 simulations instantly — no data sent to any server.
03
Read your verdict
Get a graded result: A+, A, B, C, or Fail — with full breakdown by pass rate, worst drawdown, edge persistence, and profit consistency.
Analysis methodology
Six dimensions.
One verdict.
A single backtest run tells you almost nothing. Monte Carlo exposes what the report is hiding.
Trade order randomisation
Shuffles your trade sequence 10,000 times. A real edge survives in any order — a curve-fitted one collapses the moment sequence changes.
Core test
Entry timing displacement
Shifts entry times by ±1–3 bars. Robust strategies are insensitive to being a few minutes early or late. Fragile ones are not.
Timing stress
Drawdown distribution
Maps max drawdown across all simulations. The 95th percentile DD is what you will actually experience — not the single best-case run.
Risk analysis
Profit factor stability
Checks whether profit factor stays above 1.0 in the majority of scenarios. Below 70% pass rate signals unreliable edge.
Edge validation
Slippage simulation
Applies random slippage from realistic broker distributions. Tests whether the edge survives real-world execution noise.
Execution stress
Return consistency
Measures positive monthly return rate across all simulations. High consistency is the strongest signal of genuine edge.
Consistency
Grading system
What the grades mean
Only A and A+ systems are sold on this site. Every EA passes the same test before going live.
A+
90–100% pass rate
Institutional-grade edge. Survives virtually every simulation scenario.
✓ Used on this site
A
75–89% pass rate
Strong edge confirmed. Clearly profitable across conditions.
✓ Used on this site
B
55–74% pass rate
Marginal. Has something, but not robust enough for real capital.
Not sold here
C
40–54% pass rate
Weak. Edge is likely curve-fitted. Do not trust with money.
Not sold here
F
< 40% pass rate
Failed. No evidence of real edge. Statistical accident.
Not sold here
Usage stats
Traders trust the numbers.
68+
Countries using the tool
335+
Customers on verified EAs
6+
Years Developing
100%
Free, always
Free · No account required · Instant results
Stop guessing.
Start knowing.
Upload any MT4 or MT5 backtest report. Get your Monte Carlo score in under 30 seconds. The same tool used to validate every EA on this site.
✓ 10,000 simulations per run
✓ MT4 & MT5 XML supported
✓ No login required
✓ Results in < 30 seconds
✓ Built by a live trader
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